Insights

SK Hynix reported a seven-fold increase in operating profit alongside a multiyear backlog extending through 2029–2030. The results suggest memory prices have not yet peaked and reinforce the medium-term strength of the AI-driven investment cycle.

However, today’s strength may be sowing the seeds of tomorrow’s weakness. Companies may be paying supply-constrained prices today for computing capacity that will be delivered into a significantly more abundant ecosystem later this decade, increasing the risk of capital misallocation and secular deflation.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady today, although markets continue to anticipate another hike before year-end. The pace of any additional tightening will help determine whether policymakers can contain…

Darius Dale joined Adam Taggart and Luke Gromen on Thoughtful Money to discuss why the U.S. remains in Paradigm C-driven growth, how the Treasury Bond market stress could force “Default via Debasement,” and why the AI productivity boom may drive stocks, gold, and Bitcoin higher before the cycle reaches its breaking point.

Here are three takeaways:

1) Pressure Continues to Mount in the Treasury-Bond Market

Darius expected that the Fed would tighten first to appease bond vigilantes. Eventually, however, mounting pressure may force policymakers toward Treasury buybacks, bank deregulation, and potential explicit yield curve control.

Key Takeaway: A Treasury-bond market crisis could accelerate…