Darius Dale joined Michael Kantrowitz on What’s Next For Markets to unpack the stark contrast between institutional macro risk management and social media macro, our Paradigm C investment thesis, and what Paradigm C implies for asset markets amid a generally under-invested buy side. If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:
1) From Wall Street to Main Street and Back Again
Darius starts by explaining how his unusually humble beginnings was the primary motivation for starting 42 Macro—whose mission is to democratize top-tier institutional macro risk management for the masses. After years of making wealthy clients wealthier at a major research firm, he set out to build a firm where both institutional and retail investors receive high-quality insights at the same time—all for affordable rates that don’t price Main Street out of the market like Wall Street continues to do.
Key Takeaway: 42 Macro’s mission is grounded in access and transparency—offering systematic risk overlays, deeply researched insights, and quality education equally to the many of the top PMs and CIOs across global Wall Street and everyday retail investors alike.
2) Embracing Systematic Discipline After a Personal Wake-Up Call
A painful squeeze throughout Q4 2022 became a turning point for Darius, and he shifted from discretionary macro trading to fully embracing his firm’s systematic signals (KISS and Dr. Mo). While such a dramatic process pivot would be difficult for any investor’s ego to stomach, it significantly increased the value 42 Macro creates for its clients and cemented Darius’ commitment to humility and listening to the market 100% of the time.
Key Takeaway: Success in macro investing isn’t about being right—it’s about staying on the right side of market risk. Check your ego and legacy research views at the door if you want to accomplish this goal.
3) Paradigm C: Stop Myopically Focusing On Tariffs; The Economy Is Likely To Boom
Darius outlines his thesis that the Trump administration has pivoted away from a disruptive Paradigm B (fiscal austerity and maximalist tariffs that incentivize de-globalization) toward a more Wall Street-palatable Paradigm C—combining fiscal largesse, deregulation, and limited tariffs that incentivize some reshoring. While the media unduly focuses on tariffs, the broader regime is structurally bullish for risk assets—particularly stocks, gold, and Bitcoin—and structurally bearish for bonds and the U.S. dollar.
Key Takeaway: Introduced in mid-to-late April, our Paradigm C thesis represents a durable positive shock to growth, and investors are broadly under-positioned for the associated upside risks.
Final Thought: Paradigm C Is the New Macro Roadmap—And 42 Macro Is Your Compass
Paradigm C isn’t a passing phase—it’s the structural backdrop investors must embrace. Fiscal dominance, deregulation, and supply-side reshoring are here to stay, reshaping asset class performance and capital flows. Success in this new regime isn’t about being right—it’s about managing risk systematically, staying humble, and avoiding bearish confirmation bias.
That’s the mission of 42 Macro: to bring institutional-grade insights and systematic discipline to every investor—retail or professional—so they or their clients can retire on time and comfortably.
If you are not confident your portfolio is positioned correctly for the evolving macro landscape, partner with 42 Macro for data-driven insights and proven risk management overlays—KISS and Dr. Mo—to help you stay on the right side of market risk.
No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.
Best of luck out there,
— Team 42
