Darius Dale sat down with Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank, for a detailed conversation about America’s pivot toward neo-mercantilism and the future of economic statecraft. If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:
1) Trump Isn’t Bluffing—This Is a Grand Strategy
Every argues that President Trump’s policies aren’t random or chaotic as many investors believe. They reflect a deep-rooted neo-mercantilist ideology: prioritize domestic production, run trade surpluses, and wield economic statecraft as a geopolitical weapon. Every calls it “grand macro strategy”—and it’s already happening.
Key Takeaway: This is a full-spectrum pivot to production, power, and strategic autonomy—not campaign rhetoric.
2) Earnings Will Be the Cost of Redistribution
Forget rate hikes. The new inflation control is margin compression. Industries with pricing power—defense, pharma, education—are already under the knife. If labor’s share of national income rises, capital’s will fall.
Key Takeaway: Every believes investors should prepare for a world of lower corporate margins and structurally rebalanced income shares. Wall Street won’t like it—but Main Street might.
3) Capital Flows Are the Real Warfront
Everyone’s focused on tariffs. But the real action is in the capital account. The U.S. exports financial assets to fund its lifestyle—Treasuries, equities, corporate debt. If we’re shifting to a production-based model with structurally lower margins and rising populism, global investors will think twice.
Key Takeaway: If capital outflows accelerate, expect bond yields to spike and markets to shake.
Final Thought: The Game Has Changed—Act Accordingly
Per Every, what we’re witnessing isn’t political noise—it’s structural. Every urges that Neo-mercantilism, industrial policy, capital controls, statecraft as economic strategy: these aren’t short-term tactics. They mark a fundamental shift in how the U.S. engages with the world and manages its own economy. Whether or not this experiment succeeds, the old playbook of globalization, financialization, and laissez-faire orthodoxy is being replaced.
If you are not confident your portfolio is positioned correctly for the evolving macro landscape, partner with 42 Macro for data-driven insights and proven risk management overlays—KISS and Dr. Mo—to help you stay on the right side of market risk.
No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.
Best of luck out there,
— Team 42
