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Wednesday August 6, 2025
Will POTUS truncate the Powell Fed’s fifth major policy mistake?
In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale breaks down why the Fed’s latest move may mark its fifth major policy mistake under Chair Powell. With ISM Services data softening and supercore inflation slowing, Darius warns of rising left-tail risks—and explains how the U.S. economy may not need cuts, but the market still does. He also discusses President Trump’s potential Fed Board picks and what that means for policy pivots.
The Macro Minute Episodes
The Macro Minute
Tuesday August 26, 2025
Is investor consensus adequately positioned for regime change at the Fed?
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The Macro Minute
Monday August 25, 2025
Will NVIDIA earnings and/or the July PCE Report disrupt or truncate our Paradigm C bull market?
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The Macro Minute
Friday August 15, 2025
How are tariffs impacting the US economy, part III?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday August 14, 2025
How are tariffs impacting the US economy, part II? What’s the latest regarding global liquidity?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday August 13, 2025
What’s the latest regarding US fiscal policy and US Treasury net financing policy dynamics?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday August 12, 2025
How are tariffs impacting the economy thus far?
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The Macro Minute
Monday August 11, 2025
Can the market continue looking through adverse trade policy outcomes?
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The Macro Minute
Friday August 8, 2025
Are markets adequately priced for regime change at the Fed, part IV? Should 401(k)s be exposed to alternative assets?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday August 7, 2025
How will POTUS reshape the Fed? How should investors gauge the impact of tariffs?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday August 6, 2025
Will POTUS truncate the Powell Fed’s fifth major policy mistake?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday August 5, 2025
How is corporate America weathering the trade policy uncertainty storm?
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The Macro Minute
Monday August 4, 2025
Should POTUS fire Powell to correct yet another policy mistake?
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The Macro Minute
Friday August 1, 2025
Is the Fed making another policy mistake?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday July 30, 2025
Is the US Treasury still contributing to our bullish Paradigm C theme? Is our three-year-old Resilient US Economy theme still valid?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday July 29, 2025
Will Mag-7 earnings interrupt our Paradigm C party? Will the US Treasury’s debt issuance plans interrupt our Paradigm C party?
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The Macro Minute
Monday July 28, 2025
Is the Trump administration successfully renegotiating global trade?
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The Macro Minute
Friday July 25, 2025
How will the “President Trump vs. Powell Fed” saga play out?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday July 24, 2025
How is the global economy faring amid US trade policy uncertainty and the Trump tariff shock?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday July 22, 2025
Are markets adequately pricing in regime change at the Fed, part III?
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The Macro Minute
Monday July 21, 2025
How is Q2 earning season shaping up thus far? What is the key risk of Japan’s LDP losing its seven-decade stranglehold on Japanese parliament?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday July 16, 2025
Are markets adequately pricing in regime change at the Fed?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday July 15, 2025
Are tariffs showing up in the inflation data?
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The Macro Minute
Monday July 14, 2025
Is Bitcoin’s US-policy-driven breakout to a fresh all-time high supported by global liquidity dynamics?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday July 8, 2025
What Matters More—Tariff Negotiations or Treasury Auctions?
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The Macro Minute
Monday July 7, 2025
Are investors too complacent about Wednesday's reciprocal tariff deadline?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday July 3, 2025
Is the US labor market still resilient?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday July 2, 2025
Will hardliners in the House tank the One Big [Ugly] Bill?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday July 1, 2025
Will Congressional infighting and negative headlines regarding its regressive impact derail the One Big [Ugly] Bill?
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The Macro Minute
Monday June 23, 2025
Should investors sell now and raise cash due to the US entering the Israel-Iran war?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday June 18, 2025
How will markets respond to the stagflationary shocks of the US potentially joining the Israeli-Iran war and pending section 232 tariffs? Will the Fed kick start a chain reaction that accelerates de-dollarization today?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday June 17, 2025
Is it time to buy protection? Did the BOJ cave to Japanese government bond vigilantes?
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The Macro Minute
Monday June 16, 2025
How should investors contextualize and respond to mounting geopolitical instability?
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The Macro Minute
Friday June 13, 2025
Does the prospect of total war in the Middle East mean you should sell now and raise cash?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday June 12, 2025
Are foreign investors about to start dumping Treasuries again?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday June 11, 2025
Which is a bigger upside risk for risk assets—US-China trade negotiations, the advent of a “Shadow Fed”, or Elon Musk kowtowing to Trump?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday June 10, 2025
Is the US-China trade dispute about to materially disrupt the tech sector?
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The Macro Minute
Monday June 9, 2025
How should investors respond to Trump breaking up with Elon Musk, mentally replacing Jay Powell, and kowtowing to President Xi?
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The Macro Minute
Friday June 6, 2025
Why won’t Wall Street stop fighting our ~3yr-Old “resilient US economy” theme?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday June 4, 2025
Will the one big, ugly bill survive Senate scrutiny?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday June 3, 2025
Which asset class(es) does the Trump administration want you to invest in?
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The Macro Minute
Monday June 2, 2025
Are markets too sanguine regarding the strategic decoupling of the US and China?
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The Macro Minute
Friday May 30, 2025
Are asset markets sleepwalking into a turbulent summer?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday May 29, 2025
How will President Trump respond to adverse court rulings and being called a TACO?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday May 28, 2025
Will the hard data catch down to the soft data or will the soft data catch up?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday May 21, 2025
What is the weak US dollar signaling for broader asset markets?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday May 20, 2025
When will the Fed revise its inflation target higher?
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The Macro Minute
Monday May 19, 2025
Should you downgrade the US in your portfolio?
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The Macro Minute
Friday May 16, 2025
Will tariffs lead to second-round inflation impacts?
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