One recent data point that gives us confidence we are not at the start of a market crash is the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, which was released yesterday. The report had an undeniable GOLDILOCKS (growth UP; inflation DOWN) vibe to it.
On the growth front:
- the Headline Index rose to the highest since Sep-22
- Capex Plans rose to the highest since Jan-22
- Inventory Accumulation rose to the highest since Oct-22
- Sales Expectations rose to a 5mo high
- Hiring Plans rose to a 2mo high
- Few or No Qualified Applicant for Job Openings rose to the highest since Sep-22
On the inflation front:
- the Higher Prices Index fell to the lowest since Jan-21
- Price Plans Next 3mos fell to a 3mo low
- Compensation Plans fell to the lowest since Apr-21
