Darius Dale joined Erik Townsend on MacroVoices Podcast to lay out why investors must position for a pro-growth fiscal regime that could drive substantial upside in risk assets. He argued that consensus is still underestimating the implications of Paradigm C—a structurally bullish policy pivot focused on “growing our way out” of the U.S.’s slow-motion fiscal crisis. Darius reiterates that 42 Macro’s systematic KISS model portfolio gives investors an edge by signaling when to lean into bull markets—and when to get defensive the crash(es) that will eventually require a shift to Paradigm D— print our way out of historic indebtedness. If you missed the discussion, here are three key takeaways that likely have huge implications for your portfolio:
1) Paradigm C Means Running the Economy Hot
Darius explained that the U.S. has fully entered Paradigm C—a phase of fiscal and monetary largesse designed to outgrow the national debt. This regime is pro-cyclical and supportive of risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin. Stimulative tax cuts, deregulation, reshoring, and a private sector credit cycle are reinforcing this durably positive outlook.
Key Takeaway: US fiscal and monetary policy will become increasingly aligned to stimulate growth at all costs, and investors should be positioned accordingly—especially in assets like stocks, credit, and Bitcoin.
2) Structural Forces Are Breaking the Treasury Bond Market
Darius warned that demand for U.S. Treasuries is eroding while issuance is accelerating. Foreign central banks, once price-insensitive buyers, are being replaced by private investors who demand yield. Japan is normalizing policy, Europe is re-militarizing , and China is decoupling—all shrinking global appetite for U.S. debt. This geopolitical capital call raises the risk of a durable bond market repricing.
Key Takeaway: The geopolitically driven supply-demand imbalance in the Treasury market is set to deteriorate despite Paradigm C—pressuring yields higher and making traditional “safe” assets like bonds structurally dangerous.
3) KISS Demonstrably Outperforms Amid the Chaos of a Fourth Turning
42 Macro’s KISS model helps Main Street investors navigate the volatility and complexity of a Fourth Turning regime. Dale emphasized that markets are moving faster, and market cycles feature more amplitude than in past decades. KISS dynamically manages exposure to stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and cash based on proven quantitative risk management overlays—achieving ~250% upside capture and ~50% downside capture relative to a traditional 60/40 portfolio since January 2018.
Key Takeaway: In a world of widening policy uncertainty and faster, deeper market cycles, KISS provides investors with a simple, systematic, and stress-free solution to remain on the right side of market risk. 42 Macro members agree.
Final Thought: Don’t Fear the Shift—Prepare for It
The coming years won’t reward passive investing or narrative chasing. In a Fourth Turning, policy shifts are bigger, cycles are faster, and volatility is the price of opportunity. Darius made it clear: you don’t need to predict the end of Paradigm C—you simply need a systematic approach that will manage risk effectively when the regime changes. That’s the real edge.
If you are not confident your portfolio is positioned correctly for the evolving macro landscape, partner with 42 Macro for data-driven insights and proven risk management overlays—KISS and Dr. Mo—to help you stay on the right side of market risk.
No catch—just real insights to help you stay ahead in the #Team42 community.
Best of luck out there,
— Team 42
