Darius recently sat down with Nick Halaris to discuss proper risk management, the labor market, inflation, asset markets, and much more.
If you missed the interview, here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. Investors Are Doing A Great Disservice To Themselves By Not Being Bayesian
At 42 Macro, we use three core tenants to form our systematic macro risk management process:
- Regime Segmentation: We identify which investable regime the economy is in, the probability of that regime persisting, and how long it is likely to persist.
- Bayesian Inference: We systematically update the probability of relevant economic scenarios as new information becomes available to the market.
- Risk Management Tools: We use sophisticated quantitative tools like our Volatility Adjusted Momentum Signal (VAMS) and Global Macro Risk Matrix to predict when the price momentum of a particular security or overall market regime (risk on vs. risk off) is likely to change.
We urge our readers to infuse proper risk management in their investment strategies. We welcome you to use our tools if you want to gain a systematic edge in the market: https://42macro.com/sampleresearch.
2. Labor Hoarding Has Contributed To The Resilience Of The US Economy
The most recent US Total Labor Force SA reading was 167 million people – a value below its trendline since 2009.
Conversely, Gross Domestic Income recovered its trendline approximately 18 months ago and remains above it.
The discrepancy in strength between the two indicators suggests there is a large amount of cash in the economy that can be used to demand goods and services but insufficient labor to supply those goods and services.
3. History Tells Us The Fed Must Break The Economy to Achieve Its Price Stability Mandate
We analyzed every recession since 1969 and found that, on a median basis, core PCE inflation is almost always flat-to-up in the year leading up to a recession.
Historically, inflation does not break down without a recession.
Both this study and our HOPE+I framework confirm that inflation is a lagging indicator, and we believe it will again fail to fall below the Fed’s 2% target without a recession.
That’s a wrap!
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