Darius sat down with Maggie Lake last week on Real Vision’s Daily Briefing to discuss the recent transition to REFLATION, NVIDIA earnings, China, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. The Market Regime Transitioned From GOLDILOCKS to REFLATION Last Week
We utilize the 42 Macro Global Macro Risk Matrix to nowcast the prevailing Top-Down Market Regime. We do this via scoring the 42 most crucial macro markets globally via our Volatility Adjusted Momentum Signal (VAMS) and GRID Asset Market Backtests. These scores are then tallied, with the regime encompassing the highest number of markets emerging as the Top-Down Market Regime.
As of last week, REFLATION, characterized by a risk-on environment where investors tend to be rewarded for assuming higher risks due to perceived acceleration in nominal economic growth or better than expected economic performance without policy constraints, now holds the largest share of confirming markets.
We anticipate that this risk-on Market Regime is likely to persist until around midyear. For consistent performance, investors should align their portfolios in accordance with the prevailing Top-Down Market Regime.
2. The Tech Bubble Is Likely to Persist At Least Until Around Midyear
In its quarterly earnings release last week, NVIDIA reported a revenue of $22.1 billion, surpassing analysts’ estimates by $1.7 billion, which had projected revenue to be $20.4 billion.
Prior to the release, the 42 Macro Positioning Model indicated that positioning data from commodity trading advisors (CTAs) and market-neutral hedge funds indicated a probability of a further short-term market correction. The earnings release indicated NVIDIA beat their revenue estimates by 8%, and despite a temporary dip in response to the news, the stock surged by 24% over the next two days.
We don’t believe the tech bubble is likely to become unwound at this current juncture, especially if REFLATION persists as the Top-Down Market Regime over the next quarter or two.
3. PBOC Policies This Year Have Largely Supported Asset Markets
Since December, we’ve called for Beijing to implement front-loaded policy support as we entered 2024.
That’s what we’ve witnessed, as the PBOC has been actively implementing monetary policies to support the economy. Its balance sheet is expanding, claims on banks are rising, and it is reducing the loan prime rate while committing to providing additional lending to specific sectors of the economy.
Through these measures, the PBOC is attempting to revive the Chinese economy. Instead, it is positively contributing to global liquidity, bolstering the risk-on Market Regime in asset markets.
That’s a wrap!
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