Darius sat down with Anthony Pompliano last week to discuss the outlook on asset markets, global liquidity, Bitcoin, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. While There Is An Elevated Risk of A Short-Term Market Correction, The Outlook For Asset Markets Remains Bullish Over The Medium-Term
The 42 Macro Positioning Model indicated that retail positioning had been heavily overweight stocks.
However, after the recent correction, that overweight positioning has dissipated. Despite this, current positioning data from commodity trading advisors (CTAs) and market-neutral hedge funds suggest the possibility of a further short-term market correction.
Looking ahead, the medium-term perspective is likely to be more optimistic. We are still in GOLDILOCKS, and the 42 Macro Weather Model indicates the Top-Down Market Regime has a high probability of remaining in a risk-on condition, either GOLDILOCKS or REFLATION, over the next three months.
2. Global Liquidity Heavily Influences Asset Markets
The 42 Macro Global Liquidity Proxy, an estimate for Global Liquidity, is calculated by summing the Global Central Bank Balance Sheet, Global Broad Money Supply, and Global Foreign Exchange Reserves ex-Gold.
The 42 Macro Global Liquidity Proxy is highly correlated to most assets, including corporate bonds, treasury bonds, crypto, and stocks. Only trend stationary markets like currencies and commodities fail to have a significantly high degree of correlation and/or correlation to the 42 Macro Global Liquidity Proxy.
Understanding the drivers of global liquidity, such as potential shifts in central bank policies, variations in credit growth across different economies, and other pivotal factors, is crucial for investors. By closely monitoring these drivers and tracking leading indicators of global liquidity, investors can better position themselves to navigate market risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
3. Bitcoin Is Likely To Appreciate Significantly Due To Fourth Turning Tailwinds
The flows into the various Bitcoin ETFs over the past couple of weeks suggest growing investor confidence in Bitcoin’s viability. We believe this momentum is likely to continue.
In the context of the Fourth Turning regime, which is likely to span the next decade, our research suggests an environment marked by structurally elevated inflation and budget deficits. These conditions are likely to spark a surge in demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin.
Although there will be periodic downturns, we maintain a long-term outlook that Bitcoin’s value is likely to appreciate significantly.
That’s a wrap!
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