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Tuesday July 21, 2026
What's more likely: a short squeeze, correction, sustained recovery, or crash?
Darius explores what is most likely for markets next: a short squeeze, correction, sustained recovery, or crash. All four outcomes are possible—in that order—as record bearish positioning could first fuel a short squeeze before elevated leverage and deteriorating credit conditions increase the probability of a more meaningful correction or eventual risk-off regime.
The Macro Minute Episodes
The Macro Minute
Tuesday August 11, 2026
Is the AI capex bubble’s increasing reliance on circular financing bullish or bearish?
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The Macro Minute
Monday August 10, 2026
Should investors be sanguine amid the transition from earnings season to macro season?
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The Macro Minute
Friday August 7, 2026
Will the labor market get left behind by the stock market on a permanent basis?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday August 6, 2026
Is Treasury Secretary Bessent bailing out the market (again)?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday August 5, 2026
Is the US Treasury still supporting the 42 Macro Paradigm C Bull Market™?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday August 4, 2026
Is the US labor market tight or loose?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday July 30, 2026
Is the US economy running hot or cold?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday July 29, 2026
Are the hyperscalers too cheap to keep selling?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday July 28, 2026
Does AI have a circular financing problem?
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The Macro Minute
Friday July 24, 2026
Is the global cost of capital too low?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday July 23, 2026
Why has Q2 earning season been a sell-the-news catalyst for AI stocks?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday July 22, 2026
Does AI have a women and young people problem?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday July 21, 2026
What's more likely: a short squeeze, correction, sustained recovery, or crash?
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The Macro Minute
Monday July 20, 2026
Will intensifying competition from China's low-cost AI competitors cause US hyperscalers to reassess their capital allocation decisions?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday July 16, 2026
Will the Kevin Warsh Fed be friend or foe in the years to come?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday July 15, 2026
Is the Fed done with K-shaped monetary policy?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday July 14, 2026
Should the Fed tighten monetary policy in 2026?
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The Macro Minute
Monday July 13, 2026
Will Q2 earnings season be a sell-the-news catalyst for stocks broadly?
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The Macro Minute
Friday July 10, 2026
Will Japan break the Treasury bond market?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday July 8, 2026
Should investors stop using the Mag-7 as a Source of Funds?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday July 7, 2026
Will Q2 earnings season be a sell-the-news catalyst for AI stocks?
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The Macro Minute
Monday July 6, 2026
Will the Fed spoil the good times soon?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday July 1, 2026
Is Fed Chair Warsh’s sanguine take on US inflation dynamics appropriate?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday June 30, 2026
Why is China not participating in the AI theme?
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The Macro Minute
Monday June 29, 2026
Will sharp elbows and financing concerns force investors to rotate out of the AI theme?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday June 24, 2026
Should investors continue to use AI providers as a Source of Funds for AI adopters?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday June 23, 2026
Is it time to take some chips off the AI table, part II?
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The Macro Minute
Monday June 22, 2026
Will the disintegrating global economy continue to support the global stock market?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday June 18, 2026
How long will the Fed pretend to be hawkish?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday June 17, 2026
Is Kevin Warsh a dove in hawk’s clothing or a hawk in dove’s clothing?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday June 16, 2026
When should investors care about the “circular financing” aspects of AI?
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The Macro Minute
Monday June 15, 2026
Did the US government just rubberstamp the AI bubble?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday June 11, 2026
Should the Fed “look through” the current bout of accelerating, above-target inflation?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday June 10, 2026
Is the market’s dovish interpretation of the May CPI data correct?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday June 9, 2026
Should investors chase the pending wave of trillion-dollar IPOs?
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The Macro Minute
Monday June 8, 2026
Is POTUS correct to push back on Fed tightening?
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The Macro Minute
Friday June 5, 2026
Should the Fed tighten monetary policy?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday June 3, 2026
It is time to take some chips off the AI table?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday May 28, 2026
How is the US consumer faring amid the latest adverse policy shock?
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The Macro Minute
Wednesday May 27, 2026
Will ending the Strait of Hormuz Crisis be a sell-the-news catalyst?
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The Macro Minute
Tuesday May 26, 2026
Should the Fed look through the latest inflationary supply shock?
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The Macro Minute
Thursday May 21, 2026
Did NVIDIA $NVDA and Walmart $WMT signal enough to support a continuation of the rally?
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The Macro Minute
Monday May 18, 2026
Is the US economy being run too hot, Pt. III?
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The Macro Minute
Friday May 15, 2026
Is this the start of a correction or crash?
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