Darius sat down with Anthony Pompliano last week to discuss our KISS Portfolio Construction Process, the outlook on interest rates, Bitcoin, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. We Believe Investors Should Keep Their Investment Process Simple And Systematic… And It Should Include Bitcoin
In January, we made a strategic shift to our investment approach to our KISS portfolio construction process, transitioning to a long-only strategy.
The new process is designed to help traditional investors, RIAs, family offices, and other money managers outperform the conventional 60/40 portfolio in the long run by integrating trend-following strategies and a consistent allocation to Bitcoin.
The portfolio follows a 60/30/10 allocation, comprising 60% SPY, 30% AGG, and 10% BITO.
For serious investors considering adding a Bitcoin allocation, we emphasize the importance of systematic risk management to navigate this process and achieve smoother returns.
2. There Is A Significant Amount of Policy Rate Easing Priced Into 2024
The market is currently pricing in a 90+ percent chance of a rate cut by the end of Q2 2024.
This expectation is reflected both in overnight index swaps and federal funds futures, where a considerable amount of policy rate easing is priced throughout next year.
Moreover, we believe the concurrent rise in both stocks and bonds is fueling expectations of a disinflationary ‘soft landing’ in the months ahead.
3. Our Models Indicate Only A Low-To-Middling Probability Of A Near-Term Recession In the US Economy
At 42 Macro, we monitor several key indicators that give our clients the ability to spot a developing recession in real-time.
One of these indicators has crossed its recession-signaling threshold, suggesting a low-to-middling probability of a near-term recession.
However, it is important for investors to maintain perspective.
Our research indicates that stock markets typically peak around the same time as a breakout in jobless claims and the unemployment rate. Our research also indicates the stock market is typically very buoyant in the months leading up to that peak.
Therefore, there is no urgency for investors to put on a recession trade prematurely at this juncture.
That’s a wrap!
If you found this blog post helpful:
1. Go to www.42macro.com to unlock actionable, hedge-fund-caliber investment insights.
3. Have a great day!