Inflation & Recession: Darius Dale’s Macro Deep Dive

Darius recently joined our friend Andreas Steno-Larsen on Real Vision, where they discussed the economy, inflation, the labor market, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. What Is The Overall Outlook On The Economy?

From a fundamental standpoint, we are at a crossroads in the economy, coming off a period of strong, uninterrupted, accelerating growth that began in the second half of 2022.

Although growth is slowing, we expect it to surprise consensus to the upside over the medium term.

On the inflation side, we have accurately called for the current deceleration, and we anticipate inflation will continue to meander lower over the next few months before bottoming out.

However, by the first half of next year, we project inflation is likely to accelerate again. There is no historical precedent for inflation sustainably breaking durably below trend without a recession, so our view diverges from consensus, which currently expects a durable return to 2%.

2. How Will Inflation Behave In The Fourth Turning Regime?

We believe the Fed is yielding to fiscal dominance in this Fourth Turning regime, which is consistent with what the Fed has historically done in such periods. One key dynamic investors should anticipate during a Fourth Turning is the explosive growth of public debts and deficits and how those contribute to above-trend inflation.

As a result, the Fed will likely use its balance sheet and monetary policy toolkit to create excess demand for Treasuries relative to actual market demand for those securities.

Because of this Fourth Turning-style monetary policy, we believe inflation is likely to bottom at a level higher than 2%. As investors, we will likely realize this as we move throughout 2025. However, we do not see any immediate market risks associated with this today.

3. Should Investors Be Worried About The Rising Unemployment Rate?

Our research shows the unemployment rate is rising primarily due to the growth of the labor force, not because more people are losing their jobs.

While we acknowledge that the labor market is softening, we do not see an elevated risk of a recession in the medium term, based on current leading indicators of the business cycle and how they are trending.

That’s a wrap!

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Markets Turning From ‘Goldilocks’ Towards Deflation

Darius joined our friend Adam Taggart this week to discuss the risk of recession, inflation, the risk of a US fiscal crisis, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. How High Is The Risk of Recession In The Next 3 to 12 Months?

While we agree with the consensus that the economy is late cycle, with a low unemployment rate of 4.3% and an inverted yield curve since October 2022, we do not currently see a high risk of recession in the next 3 to 12 months.

Our assessment is based on our econometric study of all the postwar economic cycles in and around recession. That process consisted of normalizing the policy, profits, liquidity, growth, stocks, employment, credit, and inflation cycles, and comparing current trends to historical patterns leading into and through a recession. Despite observing significantly tight policy, we have not experienced the typical breakdown in the corporate profit cycle, liquidity cycle, growth cycle, or stock market cycle that usually occurs a few quarters ahead of a recession.

The current constellation of these leading indicators suggests limited recession risk in the medium term. However, we will continue monitoring and flagging critical inflections in these indicators for our clients, as the US economy remains in a late-cycle condition.

2. What Is Driving The Risk of A US Fiscal Crisis?

We believe the risk of a US fiscal crisis is much closer than most investors realize.

Our assessment stems from a significant shift in the labor versus capital dynamic around 2000 – Employee Compensation as a share of Domestic Corporate Businesses Value Added dropped below trend and has remained there, primarily influenced by factors like China’s entry into the WTO, globalization, and domestic deregulation. This shift has concentrated corporate profits among the elite, creating an inequitable situation and fueling the rise of populism on both sides of the political spectrum.

Many do not realize that both political parties are contributing to a high probability of a fiscal crisis by the end of this decade. Democrats are implementing policies that inflate the incomes of the lower half of the income distribution, while Republicans are doing the same for the upper half. These forms of socialism require piling on debt, which in turn is pushing us toward a potential fiscal crisis.

3. What Is The Outlook For Inflation?

Per the same deep-dive empirical study highlighted above, we have found that inflation is the most lagging indicator of the business cycle.

Heading into a downturn, policy generally tightens first, followed by a breakdown in corporate profits and liquidity. Growth and stocks break down about one to two quarters later, followed by employment and credit. Inflation usually breaks down below trend 12 to 15 months after a recession starts.

As a result, we believe it is very unlikely that inflation returns durably to trend without a recession in the US economy. We do not, however, believe price stability is the Fed’s priority in a Fourth Turning regime. Maintaining order in global sovereign debt markets amid structurally elevated public debts and deficits is far more important.

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Risk Management Strategies: How To Avoid Losing It All

Darius joined our friend Andreas Steno Larsen on Real Vision last week to discuss inflation, what 42 Macro’s quantitative asset allocation process is signaling, where we are in the positioning and liquidity cycles, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. We Believe Inflation Is Likely To Slow, But Bottom Above 2%

We have maintained for nearly two years that the Fed would need to revise its inflation target to be higher, as their policies since early 2022 suggest they will allow the economy to run hotter for longer.

Moreover, we believe inflation is likely to slow over the medium term. However, given the current era of fiscal dominance and other structural factors, we do not foresee a durable return to the Fed’s mandate of 2%.

We believe the Fed’s decision to perpetuate a higher nominal GDP growth economy is structurally bullish for risk assets like stocks, credit, commodities, and crypto, and bearish for defensive assets such as Treasury bonds and the US dollar. Investors will still have to manage cyclical risks along the way, however.

2. Our Discretionary Risk Management Overlay aka “Dr. Mo” Is Responsible For Keeping 42 Macro Clients On The Right Side Of Market Risk

We utilize our Discretionary Risk Management Overlay as the primary tool to advise our clients on the appropriate trades and position sizes across every major asset class, sector, and factor.

At the time of the recording, we were in a risk-on REFLATION Market Regime, and our Discretionary Risk Management Overlay aka “Dr. Mo” recommended maximum long positions in many risk assets across equity, credit, and macro markets — recommendations it has maintained since November.

The recommendation logic is based on the interplay between an asset’s Volatility-Adjusted Momentum Signal (VAMS) and its historical performance within the current Market Regime. These trade recommendations are updated six times a week for our clients at 42 Macro and only change if the Market Regime or VAMS for a particular asset changes.

3. Our Analysis On Liquidity Cycle Upturns Suggests Risk Assets May Have A Larger Drawdown Ahead

Investors should focus on both the liquidity and positioning cycles to better understand how exogenous shocks, like geopolitical events or crises, can influence asset market behavior.

We have analyzed the various liquidity cycles since Mar-09 to aid our clients in predicting expected asset market performance and potential drawdowns during these cycles. Currently, we are in a liquidity cycle upturn that began in October 2022, lasting for 19 months—shorter than the median duration of nearly two years typically seen in past cycles. Despite this shorter duration, the performance has been greater than the median 37% return of other cycles, with the S&P 500 up 40% since the current liquidity cycle upturn began.

However, a concern for us is that we have not reached the median maximum drawdowns observed in past liquidity cycle upturns. In this cycle, the maximum drawdowns have been -10% for the S&P, -11% for the NASDAQ, -27% for Bitcoin, and -34% for Ethereum. These figures are significantly milder compared to the median drawdowns of -14%, -16%, -61%, and -51% for these assets, respectively. This analysis leads us to caution that, despite the strong performance and the persistence of the liquidity cycle upturn, there remains a potential for significant corrections in asset markets.

That’s a wrap! If you found this blog post helpful, go to www.42macro.com/research to gain access to 42 Macro’s proprietary trading signals, asset allocation recommendations, and portfolio construction pivots.

Cooling Inflation Could Create A ‘GOLDILOCKS Vibe’ In Asset Markets

Darius joined our friends at Mornings With Maria on Fox Business last week to discuss inflation, rate cuts, the resilient US economy, and more.

If you missed the interview, here is the most important takeaway from the conversation that has significant implications for your portfolio:

Many positive fundamental catalysts are driving the market’s strong performance. Growth has been resilient, the labor market remains robust, and inflation is increasingly behaving in a manner that allows the Federal Reserve to consider policy rate cuts.

While the economy has been resilient, we believe it is likely to slow over the medium term. However, our research indicates growth is likely to surprise to the upside, and inflation is likely to surprise to the downside. This combination could cause the current GOLDILOCKS Market Regime to persist.
That said, current market conditions are not an all-clear signal for investors. We are in an adverse spot in the positioning cycle, with various metrics indicating we are in the late innings of the market cycle. Many indicators we track in our 42 Macro Positioning Model are flashing red for medium to longer-term risks despite optimistic calls for the S&P to reach 6000.
The U.S. economy has experienced a K-shaped recovery, where different segments of the population recover at different rates. The top third of income earners account for 51% of total consumer spending, while the bottom third accounts for only 15%. This disparity has significant political ramifications for this year’s election, and when considering the direction of the stock and bond markets, it is crucial to view the economy in aggregate terms.

Renewed Fears Of A No-Landing Scenario

Darius joined our friend Nicole Petallides on Schwab Network last week to discuss 42 Macro’s risk management signals, the resiliency of the US economy, the outlook for asset markets, and more.

If you missed the interview, here is the most important takeaway from the conversation that has significant implications for your portfolio:

The Divergence Between Fed And Treasury Policy Creates A Complex Environment For Investors And Requires An Increased Reliance On Risk Management Signals Over Fundamental Predictions

When policymakers are not in sync, investing becomes more challenging. In an environment where all central banks row the boat in the same direction, investors experience a more favorable landscape. However, when signals across global growth, inflation, and policy are inconsistent, managing risk becomes significantly more complex.
The US consumer remains resilient, continuing to spend robustly. Our “Resilient US Economy” theme, which we authored in September 2022, is supported by the strong consumer balance sheets and income dynamics we have seen recently. This resilience has been a key driver of the risk-on Market Regime investors have experienced since November.
While the market impact of the policy divergence between the Treasury and the Fed remains uncertain, successful investing does not require you to predict the future; what it does require is an effective risk management system, which can help you navigate these uncertain times and stay on the right side of market risks. If you would like to add our proven risk management overlay to your investment process, we are here to help.

That’s a wrap!

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Who Cares What The Fed Thinks?

Darius joined our friend Maggie Lake last week on Real Vision’s Daily Briefing to discuss the resilient US economy, the Fed, inflation, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. The Resilient US Economy Does not Require Rate Cuts, But The Fed Wants To Cut Rates Anyway

Last week’s FOMC statement and press conference, led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, were surprisingly dovish. Notably, the Fed announced a significant reduction in its balance sheet runoff policy, scaling down from $60 billion monthly to just $25 billion in its Treasury portfolio. Powell also downplayed recent increases in inflation and dismissed the likelihood of further rate hikes.

Additionally, we track the Fed’s dot plot alongside Fed funds futures pricing across different durations. Currently, futures indicate expectations for two rate cuts in 2024, followed by another two in 2025, less than a full cut in 2026, and subsequent cuts until the floor Fed funds rate is reached. Powell attempted to support that dovish market pricing in his press conference remarks.

It is clear to us that the Fed wants to ease monetary policy.

2. The Q2 QRA Sent A Hawkish Message To Investors

The Q2 Quarterly Refunding Announcement indicated Janet Yellen and the US Treasury Department are moving away from relying on bills for financing.

In the announcement, the Treasury stated that the proportion of bills in all Net Marketable Borrowing over the trailing 12 months until Q3 2024 would be 34%, marking the lowest share since Q1 2023.

This move suggests that the Treasury is extending its financing policy further along the yield curve. We believe this shift is intentional and aimed at sending a clear, hawkish message to market participants.

3. A “No Landing” In The Economy = A “No Landing” In The PCE Deflators

In the March PCE release, Supercore PCE Inflation increased to 5.4% on a three-month annualized basis, a level near the highs of the readings over the past three years. This uptick signals a textbook reacceleration pattern, where the three-month rate of change surpasses the six-month rate of change, which outpaces the YoY rate of change.

Turning to forward-looking indicators, the Employment Cost Index accelerated to 4.4% on a QoQ SAAR basis, 200 bps faster than its 2015-2019 trend.

If productivity growth decelerates and wage inflation persists, it could indicate the sticky inflation we have observed over the past couple of months may continue, and we may settle at a level of structural inflation higher than the Fed’s 2% target.

That’s a wrap!

If you found this blog post helpful, go to www.42macro.com/research to unlock actionable, hedge-fund-caliber investment insights.

Fed’s Policy On Inflation Is A ‘Step In The Wrong Direction’

Darius joined our friend Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business last week to discuss the Fed’s policy on inflation and what it means for asset markets.

If you missed the interview, here is the most important takeaway from the conversation that has significant implications for your portfolio:

The Fed Is Kowtowing To Fiscal Dominance, And We Believe It Will Accept Higher Than 2% Inflation Over The Long Term

The FOMC has stated that it would need greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2% before easing policy. However, recent data hasn’t provided that needed confidence; instead, it suggests a prolonged timeline for achieving 2% inflation. If higher inflation persists, the Fed has stated they will maintain the current level of interest rates for as long as needed, rather than tightening further.
When we refer to the monetary authority “kowtowing” to fiscal dominance, we are describing a situation where the Federal Reserve is being influenced by the government and fiscal policymakers. In 2023, the Federal Budget Deficit grew by $364 billion. The Fed is accepting the increased government spending will continue and inflation will remain elevated.
Our analysis of prior economic cycles found that periods when the monetary authority kowtows to fiscal dominance are structurally bullish for risk assets like stocks and crypto and structurally bearish for assets like the bond market.

That’s a wrap!

If you found this blog post helpful:

1. Go to www.42macro.com to unlock actionable, hedge-fund-caliber investment insights.

2. RT this thread and follow @DariusDale42 and @42Macro.

3. Have a great day!

What Will Push Powell to Cut?

Darius joined Maggie Lake on Real Vision’s Daily Briefing this week to discuss the resiliency of the US economy, Immaculate Disinflation, Bitcoin, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. The US Economy Remains Resilient

In September 2022, we authored our “Resilient US Economy” theme, and the prevailing data today continues to support this narrative.

Furthermore, our research indicates that the Fed is likely to implement easing monetary policies over the medium term. This confluence of factors—a robust economy operating at or above trend coupled with supportive monetary measures—has fostered a bullish environment for asset markets.

We believe asset markets are likely to continue performing well until either our “Resilient US Economy” theme dissipates or the “Immaculate Disinflation” theme concludes, forcing the Fed and Treasury to officially pivot to hawkish forward guidance and net financing policy.

2. Recent Labor Market Data Indicates Evidence of Sticky Inflation

The Feb JOLTS report confirmed that “Immaculate Slackening” persists, but investors should be worried by the apparent bottoming in turnover:

The Private Sector Hires Rate ticked up from its cycle low to 4.1%
The Private Sector Quits rate remained unchanged at 2.4%

An increase in employee turnover could disrupt the “Immaculate Disinflation” narrative. Because workers who change jobs tend to have faster wage growth, the bottoming in these indicators suggests that we may be running out of steam concerning the disinflation we have observed in wages.

Despite the February JOLTS report supporting sticky inflation, we continue to believe the “Immaculate Disinflation” theme is likely to persist for another quarter or two.

3. Bitcoin’s Current Correction May Worsen If The “Immaculate Disinflation” Narrative Dissipates

After rallying 75% from Feb 1st to March 10th, Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation period.

We anticipated this pullback. Over the past month, we have highlighted several extended tactical positioning indicators in our positioning model to our clients, such as the AAII Bulls Bears Spread and AAII survey, that suggested markets were likely overbought.

If the “Immaculate Disinflation” narrative loses steam, the current correction could deepen. If that occurs, investors would need to pull forward their timeline expectations of a transition from a risk-on REFLATION Market Regime to a risk-off INFLATION Market Regime.

That’s a wrap!

If you found this blog post helpful:

1. Go to www.42macro.com to unlock actionable, hedge-fund-caliber investment insights.

2. RT this thread and follow @DariusDale42 and @42Macro.

3. Have a great day!

The Fed Pivots From Soft Landing To No Landing… And Got Incrementally Dovish

Darius joined Maggie Lake on Real Vision’s Daily Briefing this week to discuss the implications of the recent FOMC meeting, fiscal policy, AI, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. The Federal Reserve Still Anticipates Three Rate Cuts in 2024

In this week’s meeting, the FOMC released its March Summary of Economic Projections.

In their projections, the FOMC:

Increased the 2024 Real GDP forecast by 70 basis points to 2.1%, 2025 by 20 basis points to 2.0%, and 2026 by 10 basis points to 2.0%
Lowered 2024 and 2026 Unemployment Rate projections to 4%
Increased 2025 Headline PCE Inflation by 10 basis points to 2.2%
Increased 2024 Core PCE Inflation by 20 basis points to 2.6%
Retained three projected Fed Funds Rate cuts in 2024
Increase 2025 and 2026 Fed Funds rate projections by one hike each to 3.9% and 3.1%, respectively

Since the summer of 2022, we have maintained our ‘Resilient US Economy’ theme and its potential to contribute to inflation settling at a level unpalatable to the Fed. Based on their revised projections, the Fed now agrees with our no-landing call.

2. The Fiscal Impulse Remains Decidedly Positive

The YoY growth rate of the Fiscal YTD US Treasury Federal Budget Net Receipts remains positive at 7%.

However, that lags the year-over-year growth rate of the Fiscal YTD US Treasury Federal Budget Net Outlays, which is currently 9%. This dynamic is further underscored by the 15% year-over-year increase in the Fiscal YTD US Treasury Federal Budget Balance, translating to an expansion in the budget deficit.

This incremental fiscal impulse we continue to see from the Biden Administration signifies an intentional effort to secure victory in the upcoming election.

3. The AI Theme May Be Overpriced for The Current Pace of Development And Deployment

While our overall outlook for the AI sector remains bullish, we anticipate gains to be increasingly experienced by other sectors, as we expect the market performance to continue broadening out as it has done over the past four to six weeks.

Furthermore, at 42 Macro, we closely monitor various metrics, including the combined S&P500 Tech & Communication Services Mean Price to Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) Earnings and Sales Ratios, along with the Combined Market Cap to S&P500 Market Cap ratio. Although the combined S&P500 Tech & Communication Services Mean Price to TTM Earnings ratio falls below the levels seen during the tech bubble in 2000, the Mean Price to TTM Sales and Market Cap as a % of the S&P 500 ratios exceed or match those observed during that period.

While these ratios may exceed these levels, we expect equity market performance to continue broadening out as investors acknowledge the high probability of the no-landing scenario.

That’s a wrap!

If you found this blog post helpful:

1. Go to www.42macro.com to unlock actionable, hedge-fund-caliber investment insights.

2. RT this thread and follow @DariusDale42 and @42Macro.

3. Have a great day!

Will Rate Cuts Come in 2024?

Darius sat down with Maggie Lake on Real Vision’s Daily Briefing this week to discuss asset markets, productivity growth, Immaculate Disinflation, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. A Tug-of-War Has Emerged Between The No-Landing And Soft-Landing Scenarios

Asset markets have pivoted to a soft-landing as consensus since late October, driven by positive surprises in growth, global liquidity, and productivity, as well as favorable treasury net issuance policy.

At the current juncture, the probability of a soft-landing scenario is in the process of peaking, and the no-landing scenario is gaining share.

The no-landing scenario is not yet the modal outcome, however. The February ISM Services Report provided insight into various metrics, including the Headline ISM Services PMI, Prices, New Orders, Employment, Number of Industries Reporting Growth, and Supplier Delivery Times. Collectively, these metrics supported the soft-landing scenario at the expense of the no-landing scenario.

2. Above-Trend Productivity Growth Will Likely Be Sustained For The Next Few Quarters

The recent surge in AI, coupled with decreased employee turnover rates and the thawing of global supply chains between the manufacturing and services sectors, has collectively fueled above-trend productivity growth.

We anticipate that this momentum in productivity is likely to be sustained over the medium term.

This is important for investors because higher productivity puts less pressure on corporate margins, reducing the need for corporations to shed costs and/or pass on price increases to consumers.

3. Immaculate Disinflation Is Likely to Dissipate In The Second Half of This Year

Immaculate Disinflation persists.

Despite the two hot inflation prints from last month’s CPI and PCE Deflator reports, the Fed recognizes that a single month’s data does not establish a trend. They prefer to see sustained patterns over multiple months before considering a policy shift.

That said, we believe that the “Immaculate Disinflation” narrative is likely to come to an end in the second half of this year.

That’s a wrap!

If you found this blog post helpful:

1. Go to www.42macro.com to unlock actionable, hedge-fund-caliber investment insights.

2. RT this thread and follow @DariusDale42 and @42Macro.

3. Have a great day!