Will Gold Protect Your Wealth Better Than Bonds Over The Long Term?

Darius recently joined Gavekal’s David Hay to discuss the current Fourth Turning, #inflation, the relative attractiveness of Treasury Bonds and Gold, and much more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. How Can Understanding Fourth Turning Economic And Policy Dynamics Help Investors Position Their Portfolios?

At 42 Macro, we conducted a deep-dive empirical study on Fourth Turnings to identify trends across economic, market, and policy indicators during these transformative periods.

Our research revealed that Fourth Turnings are consistently marked by explosive growth in sovereign deficits, rising debt levels, expanding government size, and soaring costs of financing deficits. These periods also see a sharp deterioration in sovereign fiscal balances—a trend already unfolding in the current Fourth Turning.

As investors, understanding how these indicators are likely to behave during Fourth Turnings is essential to properly positioning your portfolio and staying on the right side of market risk.

2. How Does Inflation Typically Behave In Fourth Turnings?

Our analysis of Fourth Turnings reveals that Democrats have historically emphasized government social benefits to supplement household incomes, while Republicans have prioritized lowering corporate tax rates. These opposing approaches have converged to fuel the accumulation of significant public debt.

We foresee the Federal Reserve is likely to be drawn into the equation, effectively forced to monetize rising public sector debt and deficits.

We believe the explosive growth of public sector debt plus the Fed’s likely choice to monetize a considerable portion of that debt is likely to catalyze sustainably above-trend rates of inflation, aligning with our research that indicates inflation tends to accelerate sharply during Fourth Turnings.

3. How Can Investors Best Protect Their Wealth Against Explosive Growth In Sovereign Debt And Sustainably Above-Trend Inflation?

Our KISS Model Portfolio is our systematic trend-following strategy designed for retail investors, with a core allocation of 60% Stocks, 30% Gold, and 10% Bitcoin.

Recently, we pivoted from Treasury Bonds to Gold, which we believe is a better choice for investors in the context of the current Fourth Turning. Gold has consistently performed well across various Market Regimes, serving as a reliable hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty—particularly during Fourth Turnings, when sovereign debt and inflation tend to surge.

Since our bullish pivot in November 2023, the QQQs have surged 40% and Bitcoin is up +174%.

If you have fallen victim to bear porn and missed part—or all—of this rally, it’s time to explore how our KISS Model Portfolio or Discretionary Risk Management Overlay aka “Dr. Mo” will keep your portfolio on the right side of market risk going forward.

Thousands of investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, accurate, and affordable signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to learn more about how our clients incorporate macro into their investment process and how you can do the same, we invite you to watch our complimentary 3-part macro masterclass.

No catch, just macro insights to help you grow your portfolio—our way of saying thanks for being part of our global #Team42 community of thoughtful investors.

Will Risk Assets Power Ahead Into And Through Year End?

Darius recently joined Paul Barron on the Paul Barron Network, where they discussed 42 Macro’s three bullish fundamental themes, the key economic cycles that lead asset markets, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the two most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. When Should Investors Brace For A Significant Market Downturn?

We remain confident in the fundamental bull base for asset markets through early-Q2.

Our outlook is supported by three of our four core fundamental themes:

Our “Resilient U.S. Economy” theme, which we authored in September 2022.
Our “Here Comes The Liquidity” theme, which we introduced in September 2024.
Our “Jay Wants A Soft Landing” theme, which expresses our view that the Fed has an asymmetrically dovish reaction function that is geared towards engineering a soft landing in the US economy.

Combined, these three themes suggest increased liquidity, upside surprises in growth, and an accommodating Federal Reserve – all factors that indicate a favorable environment for risk assets over the medium term.

However, looking beyond Q2 2025, we anticipate asset markets are likely to face downside risks, such as a global refinancing air pocket. TBD on that.

2. What Implications Do Sidelined Cash And Growing Credit Stress Among Retail Consumers Have For Asset Markets?

Our empirical research shows that credit delinquencies and “cash on the sidelines” have limited significance in the current market context because they are lagging indicators. Historically, these factors shift after broader asset markets and the overall economy have moved.

In contrast, our deep-dive empirical study of business cycle dynamics has identified four key cycles that consistently lead asset markets:

Policy
Liquidity
Growth
Corporate Profits

These cycles are the primary drivers behind significant swings in asset markets. While real-time data on these factors is not always available, developing an informed perspective on their trajectories enables a more credible and forward-looking approach to anticipating market movements.

Since our bullish pivot in November 2023, the QQQs have surged 39%. Momentum $MTUM is up +51% and Bitcoin is up +184%.

Thousands of investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, accurate, and affordable signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to learn more about how our clients incorporate macro into their investment process and how you can do the same, we invite you to watch our complimentary 3-part macro masterclass.

No catch, just macro insights to help you grow your portfolio—our way of saying thanks for being part of our global #Team42 community of thoughtful investors.

Will AI Replace Humans In Investing?

Darius recently hosted QuAIL Technologies CEO Andrew Fischer on this month’s 42 Macro Pro to Pro, where they took a deep dive into AI’s future impact on the financial services industry.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. Will AI Replace Investment Professionals?

While many financial services professionals fear this, Andrew believes AI will not replace them. Instead, it will become a powerful tool every investor uses in some form.

Common applications of AI include accelerating workflows and increasing productivity by enhancing systems like report generation and client-stakeholder communication. AI’s ability to analyze vast amounts of data gives humans a competitive edge.

AI will not replace people; rather, people using AI will replace those that do not.

2. How Will AI Impact Investors’ Lives?

Andrew Fischer shared a compelling example from QuAIL Technologies, where AI is used daily to help investors manage the overwhelming volume of information they encounter.

Each morning, QuAIL’s AI agents analyze around 5,000 articles—well before they have had their first cup of coffee.

Humans can not realistically process that many articles in such a short time nor retain or act on the insights while they are still relevant. But with AI, investment professionals can quickly access refined, relevant insights from thousands of sources. This means that by the start of their day, they already understand the latest fundamental and technical developments and their potential impact on their portfolios, giving them a strategic edge over other market participants.

3. How Can AI Enhance Repeatable Investment Processes?

One area where AI shows significant promise is in assisting the process of identifying Market Regimes. Andrew has explored concepts like geometric fractals and statistical self-similarity – research that suggests that the factors defining each regime can change over time. By incorporating AI, investors can track these shifts in explanatory variables, continuously adjusting the models used to capture these evolving patterns.

AI also helps investors ensure they are focused on the most predictive factors for identifying market regimes. With AI, a system can iterate and refine its understanding of market dynamics.

Since alpha naturally decays over time, this continuous improvement and stress-testing of models is essential. AI can play a transformative role in streamlining such procedures, thus preserving and enhancing our and every investor’s investment approach.

Since our bullish pivot in November 2023, the QQQ has surged nearly 30%.

If you have fallen victim to bear porn and missed part—or all—of this rally, it’s time to explore our KISS Model Portfolio or Discretionary Risk Management Overlay aka “Dr. Mo” signals that have a proven track record of keeping your portfolio on the right side of market risk.

Thousands of investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to learn more about how our clients incorporate macro into their investment process and how you can do the same, we invite you to watch our complimentary 3-part macro masterclass. No catch, just macro insights to help you grow your portfolio—our way of saying thanks for being part of our global #Team42 community of thoughtful investors.

How Will The Republican Sweep Impact Asset Markets Over The Long Term?

Darius recently sat down with Macro Voices’ Erik Townsend, where they discussed the implications of the US election, how monetary policy dynamics are likely to change during the Fourth Turning, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the two most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. How Will The US Debt-to-GDP Ratio Fare Under President-Elect Trump?

At 42 Macro, we have evaluated the proposals each candidate has put forward on the campaign trail through September 30th of this year. Our research indicates that Kamala Harris’s proposals would have accumulated approximately $3.5 trillion in additional U.S. sovereign debt over the 10-year projection period relative to the baseline. On the other hand, if we add up the various income and spending proposals from the Trump campaign, the increase is approximately $7.5 trillion.

Despite President Trump winning the election, our research indicated the US debt-to-GDP ratio would likely accelerate dramatically no matter who won the election or which party controls Congress.

Moreover, under current law, with the Trump tax cuts set to expire at the end of 2025, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 125% in 10 years. With Harris’s proposals, the ratio would have been projected to increase to 133% over the same period. Trump’s proposals are likely to push it to 142%.

2. How Are Monetary Policy Dynamics Likely To Evolve In This Fourth Turning?

In our deep-dive empirical study on the Fourth Turning, we explore how monetary policy dynamics have evolved in previous Fourth Turnings and how they are likely to evolve in this Fourth Turning.

In our deep dive, we found that the key monetary policy risks in a Fourth Turning include significant financial repression and monetary debasement:

Financial Repression: We believe investors should prepare for increased financial repression because banks currently have ample capacity to lend to the Treasury market. Our research indicates commercial banks’ holdings of Treasury and agency securities are currently approximately 18% of total bank assets, compared to nearly 50% during the peak of the last Fourth Turning. We anticipate that regulators, including the Fed and other international bodies, are likely to pressure banks and other financial institutions (e.g., pension funds, insurers, asset managers) into holding more Treasuries. This is likely to keep policy rates significantly below what could be elevated rates of inflation as we move further into this Fourth Turning.
Monetary Debasement: We believe investors should anticipate monetary debasement as the private sector, increasingly relied upon to fund the U.S. government, is likely to demand higher yields. Our research shows that the Federal Reserve’s Treasury holdings have declined to only 16% of total marketable Treasury debt. Meanwhile, commercial banks now hold around 15%, and foreign official holdings make up 14%. The remaining share, largely held by the global private sector, has surged from 36% in late 2021 to 54% currently. In our view, this growing reliance on the private sector to finance U.S. public debt has significantly contributed to the recent rally in bond yields and the rise in real interest rates across the yield curve, both in the U.S. and globally. The key takeaway is that, given the already deteriorating U.S. public sector balance sheet, this trend is likely to worsen dramatically. We recognize that only one institution has a balance sheet large enough to sustain U.S. public debt in a Fourth Turning scenario: the Federal Reserve.

Both of these dynamics are likely to lead to an acceleration in money supply growth, which we believe is likely to inflate the value of risk assets such as stocks, credit, crypto, commodities, and gold throughout the Fourth Turning.

There will be some significant crashes in these assets to risk manage along the way when public sector debt growth vastly exceeds the amount of monetary debasement and financial repression available at the time, leading to a global refinancing air pocket. We anticipate the Fed will respond to future refinancing air pockets with more monetary debasement and more financial repression, leading to renewed bull markets from higher lows in the prices of risk assets. They don’t have a choice.

Investors that maintain access to our KISS Model Portfolio or Discretionary Risk Management Overlay aka “Dr. Mo” signals will sleep comfortably at night while participating in the high-stakes, Fed-sponsored bull market we anticipate will vastly exceed the wildest imaginations of investors.

By now, you’ve likely realized that piecing together an investment strategy from finance podcasts, YouTube videos, and macro “gurus” on 𝕏 is not delivering the results you know you deserve.

This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.

If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?

Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to learn more about how our clients incorporate macro into their investment process and how you can do the same, we invite you to watch our complimentary 3-part macro masterclass.

No catch, just macro insights to help you grow your portfolio—our way of saying thanks for being part of the 42 Macro universe.

Buying The Dip In A Risk On Market

Darius sat down with Schwab Network’s Nicole Petallides last week to discuss the current risk-on Market Regime and the outlook for asset markets.

If you missed the interview, here is the most important takeaway from the conversation that has significant implications for your portfolio:

We Are In A Risk-On Market Regime And Believe Investors Should Consider Buying This Dip For Three Reasons:

U.S. growth is likely to exceed consensus expectations over the medium term, alongside an improving global economy.
The Federal Reserve maintains an asymmetrically dovish reaction function, which we believe will continue to support asset markets over the medium term.
U.S. and global liquidity are likely to accelerate markedly over the medium term.

Despite our being in a risk-on Market Regime, our positioning model recently indicated a high risk of a correction in risk assets, and we believe the current decline in stocks is likely the beginning of that correction.

We do not expect this correction to be severe, likely no more than 5-8% in $SPX price terms. The earliest we currently anticipate a sustained risk-off market regime commencing is Q2 of next year.

This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.

If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?

Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to learn more about how our clients incorporate macro into their investment process and how you can do the same, we invite you to watch our complimentary 3-part macro masterclass.

No catch, just macro insights to help you grow your portfolio—our way of saying thanks for being part of the 42 Macro universe.

To Survive The Fourth Turning, You Must Listen To The Market

Darius sat down with our friend Charles Payne on Fox Business last week to discuss the impact of the Fourth Turning on the economy and asset markets.

If you missed the interview, here is the most important takeaway from the conversation that has significant implications for your portfolio:

During This Fourth Turning, Public Debt Growth Is Likely to Vastly Exceed Current Projections. The Only Institution With A Balance Sheet Large Enough to Finance This Is The Federal Reserve—And They Will.

Income inequality typically breaks down during a Fourth Turning, driven by wealth redistribution through populism. We believe this trend is likely to persist throughout this Fourth Turning.
We believe global liquidity is likely to increase over the medium term. The Federal Reserve is cutting policy rates despite Super Core inflation remaining 200 basis points above their target, showcasing their asymmetrically dovish reaction function. Combined with our ‘Resilient U.S. Economy’ theme, which we authored in September 2022, we see strong potential for upside in asset markets over the medium term.
During a Fourth Turning, it is generally wise for investors to long risk assets such as stocks, credit, crypto, commodities, and gold. Additionally, we recommend investors avoid large positions in Treasury bonds, as we believe inflation is likely to remain persistent and growth relatively stable.

That said, risk assets will NOT appreciate throughout the Fourth Turning in a straight line. There will be significant drawdowns to risk manage along the way – perhaps as painful as the Dot Com Bust, GFC, or COVID crash.

Fortuitously, 42 Macro clients have access to our KISS Model Portfolio and Discretionary Risk Management Overlay aka “Dr. Mo” to help them successfully navigate their portfolios throughout these increasingly trying geopolitical times.

This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.

If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?

Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to learn more about how our clients incorporate macro into their investment process and how you can do the same, we invite you to watch our complimentary 3-part macro masterclass.

No catch, just macro insights to help you grow your portfolio—our way of saying thanks for being part of the 42 Macro universe.

What Happens to Markets In A Fourth Turning?

Darius recently sat down with our friend David Lin, where they discussed the drivers behind current market positioning, the Fourth Turning, its impact on asset markets, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. What Has Caused The Current Market Positioning?

In our view, current market positioning has been driven by three main themes:

Resilient U.S. Economy: Since authoring the theme in September 2022, we have seen ongoing upside surprises in U.S. growth. We believe this resilience has contributed to the current crowded long positioning in risk assets.
Here Comes The Liquidity: We anticipate a significant acceleration in both U.S. and global liquidity over the medium term.
Jay Wants A Soft Landing: We have maintained this theme since last November, which revolves around the Federal Reserve’s asymmetrically dovish reaction function. When the Fed leans dovish and the economy is not in or heading into recession, it is often a bullish signal for investors.

2. How Will The Fourth Turning Affect Income Inequality?

At 42 Macro, we conducted an in-depth statistical study on Fourth Turnings, focusing on the economic implications and policy shifts, as well as their impact on asset markets.

In our empirical study, we found that income inequality, measured by the top 10% share of national income, declined sharply throughout previous Fourth Turnings.

We are currently at a very high level of income inequality, and we expect a significant decline throughout this Fourth Turning – but not without great cost. We anticipate policy trends to become increasingly populist, essentially redistributing wealth from the rich to the poor. This shift may not occur immediately, especially given the current divided government, but it may be a response to a larger crisis that both households and investors will need to navigate.

3. How Will Asset Markets Perform During The Fourth Turning?

Anticipating how asset markets will perform during the Fourth Turning involves understanding how policymakers typically respond to these geopolitical, economic, and social developments. Historically, they have used two main strategies:

Fiscal Support: There is usually significant fiscal policy support for the economy, which boosts nominal GDP and tends to be favorable for risk assets, such as stocks, credit, crypto, and commodities.
Monetary Debasement and Financial Repression: The Federal Reserve has historically engaged in monetary debasement and financial repression during Fourth Turnings, effectively lowering the value of money to support fiscal measures.

Combining these factors—excessive fiscal policy, monetary debasement, and currency devaluation—leads us at 42 Macro to maintain a structurally bullish stance on risk assets throughout the Fourth Turning, including stocks, credit, crypto, and commodities, while remaining structurally bearish on defensive assets like Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar.

That does not mean that risk assets will appreciate in a straight line. There will be significant drawdowns to risk manage along the way – perhaps as painful as the Dot Com Bust, GFC, or COVID crash. Fortuitously, 42 Macro clients have access to our KISS Model Portfolio and Discretionary Risk Management Overlay, aka “Dr. Mo”, to help them successfully navigate their portfolios throughout these increasingly trying geopolitical times.

This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.

If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?

Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.

When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.

What Will The Future of AI Hold?

Darius recently hosted our friend Beth Kindig on 42 Macro’s Pro to Pro, where they discussed the outlook for the Tech and Communication sectors, how companies will benefit from AI, the scale of AI as an investment opportunity, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. Are The Tech and Communication Services Sectors Overvalued?

Our research shows that the valuations of the Tech and Communication Services sectors, when combined, are comparable to levels seen during the dot-com bubble.

At 42 Macro, we monitor metrics such as the trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales ratio, and the combined market cap of these sectors as a share of total S&P 500 market cap.

While the current earnings and cash flow generation of these companies make a return to the extreme P/E levels of the dot-com bubble unlikely in the medium term, we have already exceeded the peak price-to-sales ratio and their share of the overall S&P 500 index from that period. This suggests that while earnings may provide some cushion, valuation pressures remain elevated compared to historical benchmarks.

2. How Will Firms Become More Profitable Through The Implementation of AI?

Estimates from McKinsey and Gartner indicate that AI will generate $4.4 trillion in global profits. But where will these profits come from?

One example, highlighted by Beth Kindig, is Klarna, the buy-now-pay-later unicorn valued at around $7 billion. Klarna recently announced plans to eliminate Salesforce and Workday from their tech stack by developing custom large language models tailored to their needs.

Beth estimates the custom models might cost them between $3 to $7 million, compared to the tens of millions they would spend on Salesforce and Workday subscriptions. By integrating custom AI solutions and cutting out those expensive software products, Klarna will likely become more profitable.

3. Is AI A Better Investment Opportunity Than The Internet?

The internet is open-source and highly democratized, allowing anyone to create a website easily.

AI, however, is the opposite. It is proprietary, with companies owning their large language models. The barrier to entry for AI is extremely high, unlike the internet, where it is nearly nonexistent.

Training an LLM is costly, and the scarcity of GPUs makes success in AI challenging. This creates a winner-takes-all environment where early movers gain a significant competitive edge. Investing in AI today presents a rare opportunity to benefit from a high-barrier-to-entry industry with massive growth potential and the power to shape entire sectors for years to come.

This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.

If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?

Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.

When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.

Stock Market Predictions To End 2024!

Darius recently joined our friend Anthony Pompliano, where they discussed the 42 Macro Global Macro Risk Matrix, the outlook for the global economy, AI-related productivity growth, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. What Does Our Global Macro Risk Matrix Indicate About The Direction of Asset Markets?

We are currently in an era of peak noise. At 42 Macro, we help our clients cut through the noise, and our Global Macro Risk Matrix is one of the most powerful tools we have built to do that.

Looking at our Global Macro Risk Matrix, we have seen a battle between GOLDILOCKS and DEFLATION since the end of June. Currently, DEFLATION has the highest share of confirming markets, but the strength of that signal is low—only in the 27th percentile of data going back to January 1998.

This suggests that market participants are still uncertain which Market Regime will prevail. We expect this debate is likely to resolve in favor of GOLDILOCKS, but we could see asset markets price in DEFLATION over the short term.

2. How Will The Global Economy Influence Asset Markets Over The Medium Term?

At 42 Macro, we provide historical data and forward projections for the Bottom-Up GRID Regime across major global economies.

According to our models, many economies are in or moving toward a GOLDILOCKS regime through the end of this year.

In our view, this shift could create positive momentum for asset markets in the medium term. Although the U.S. economy’s GRID sequence generally carries more weight than the rest of the global economies, it is promising to see global economies providing tailwinds rather than the headwinds experienced from mid-2021 to the end of 2023.

3. How Will AI Impact Asset Markets Moving Forward?

Productivity growth is positive for asset markets because it allows the economy to grow with disinflationary pressure. When productivity rises, you typically see margin expansion, which supports labor market growth without triggering the inflationary impulses that would cause corporations to cut jobs – a dynamic that persists today.

However, we believe we have not yet seen substantial productivity gains from AI.

As a result, we do not believe AI will be the dominant driver of asset markets in the near term. That said, if AI turns out to be as significant as many expect, it will have an enormous impact on the future of the economy.

That’s a wrap!

This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.

If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?

Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.

When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.

Inflation & Recession: Darius Dale’s Macro Deep Dive

Darius recently joined our friend Andreas Steno-Larsen on Real Vision, where they discussed the economy, inflation, the labor market, and more.

If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:

1. What Is The Overall Outlook On The Economy?

From a fundamental standpoint, we are at a crossroads in the economy, coming off a period of strong, uninterrupted, accelerating growth that began in the second half of 2022.

Although growth is slowing, we expect it to surprise consensus to the upside over the medium term.

On the inflation side, we have accurately called for the current deceleration, and we anticipate inflation will continue to meander lower over the next few months before bottoming out.

However, by the first half of next year, we project inflation is likely to accelerate again. There is no historical precedent for inflation sustainably breaking durably below trend without a recession, so our view diverges from consensus, which currently expects a durable return to 2%.

2. How Will Inflation Behave In The Fourth Turning Regime?

We believe the Fed is yielding to fiscal dominance in this Fourth Turning regime, which is consistent with what the Fed has historically done in such periods. One key dynamic investors should anticipate during a Fourth Turning is the explosive growth of public debts and deficits and how those contribute to above-trend inflation.

As a result, the Fed will likely use its balance sheet and monetary policy toolkit to create excess demand for Treasuries relative to actual market demand for those securities.

Because of this Fourth Turning-style monetary policy, we believe inflation is likely to bottom at a level higher than 2%. As investors, we will likely realize this as we move throughout 2025. However, we do not see any immediate market risks associated with this today.

3. Should Investors Be Worried About The Rising Unemployment Rate?

Our research shows the unemployment rate is rising primarily due to the growth of the labor force, not because more people are losing their jobs.

While we acknowledge that the labor market is softening, we do not see an elevated risk of a recession in the medium term, based on current leading indicators of the business cycle and how they are trending.

That’s a wrap!

This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.

If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?

Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.

If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.

When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.