What Will The Future of AI Hold?
Darius recently hosted our friend Beth Kindig on 42 Macro’s Pro to Pro, where they discussed the outlook for the Tech and Communication sectors, how companies will benefit from AI, the scale of AI as an investment opportunity, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. Are The Tech and Communication Services Sectors Overvalued?
Our research shows that the valuations of the Tech and Communication Services sectors, when combined, are comparable to levels seen during the dot-com bubble.
At 42 Macro, we monitor metrics such as the trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales ratio, and the combined market cap of these sectors as a share of total S&P 500 market cap.
While the current earnings and cash flow generation of these companies make a return to the extreme P/E levels of the dot-com bubble unlikely in the medium term, we have already exceeded the peak price-to-sales ratio and their share of the overall S&P 500 index from that period. This suggests that while earnings may provide some cushion, valuation pressures remain elevated compared to historical benchmarks.
2. How Will Firms Become More Profitable Through The Implementation of AI?
Estimates from McKinsey and Gartner indicate that AI will generate $4.4 trillion in global profits. But where will these profits come from?
One example, highlighted by Beth Kindig, is Klarna, the buy-now-pay-later unicorn valued at around $7 billion. Klarna recently announced plans to eliminate Salesforce and Workday from their tech stack by developing custom large language models tailored to their needs.
Beth estimates the custom models might cost them between $3 to $7 million, compared to the tens of millions they would spend on Salesforce and Workday subscriptions. By integrating custom AI solutions and cutting out those expensive software products, Klarna will likely become more profitable.
3. Is AI A Better Investment Opportunity Than The Internet?
The internet is open-source and highly democratized, allowing anyone to create a website easily.
AI, however, is the opposite. It is proprietary, with companies owning their large language models. The barrier to entry for AI is extremely high, unlike the internet, where it is nearly nonexistent.
Training an LLM is costly, and the scarcity of GPUs makes success in AI challenging. This creates a winner-takes-all environment where early movers gain a significant competitive edge. Investing in AI today presents a rare opportunity to benefit from a high-barrier-to-entry industry with massive growth potential and the power to shape entire sectors for years to come.
By now, you’ve likely realized that piecing together an investment strategy from finance podcasts, YouTube videos, and macro “gurus” on 𝕏 is not delivering the results you know you deserve.
This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.
If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?
Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.
If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.
When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.
Threading The Macro Needle
Darius recently joined our friends Nadine Terman and Ben Brey, where they discussed the Market Regime outlook, our “Resilient US Economy” theme, #inflation, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. Is A Transition to A Risk-Off Market Regime Likely Over The Medium Term?
A transition to a risk-off Market Regime is typically caused by one or more of three factors:
- A sharp, unexpected, and prolonged deceleration in growth
- A sharp, unexpected, and prolonged acceleration in inflation
- A sharp and unexpected tightening of monetary and/or fiscal policy – usually both
In terms of our fundamental outlook, we do not believe any of these scenarios is highly probable in the medium term.
As a result, we believe the path of least resistance in risk assets is likely to remain higher until one or more of these factors comes to fruition.
2. What Is Upholding Our “Resilient US Economy” Theme?
We expect growth to remain resilient and surprise consensus expectations to the upside.
There are five pillars upholding that view:
- A historically strong household sector balance sheet
- The “West Village Montauk Effect”
- A historically strong corporate sector balance sheet
- Limited exposure to the policy rate
- Limited exposure to the manufacturing sector
Additionally, there is little evidence of capital misallocation or adverse selection in the current business cycle. Specifically, the U.S. private non-financial sector’s debt-to-GDP ratio has been declining during this business cycle, indicating that economic growth is outpacing credit expansion.
3. What Is The Outlook For Inflation Over The Medium Term?
Our models indicate inflation is likely to bottom in 2H24.
However, as we head into Q1 of 2025 and beyond, our models diverge from consensus estimates and suggest inflation is likely to reaccelerate from the cyclical low observed in 2H24.
We believe there are three major factors that are likely to cause inflation to reaccelerate:
- Easing base effects;
- Inflation is the most lagging indicator of the business cycle and we do not anticipate a recession over a medium-term time horizon; and
- Incrementally populist fiscal policy.
By now, you’ve likely realized that piecing together an investment strategy from finance podcasts, YouTube videos, and macro “gurus” on 𝕏 is not delivering the results you know you deserve.
This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.
If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?
Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.
If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.
When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.
Why The Fed Needs To Front Load Rate Cuts
Darius recently joined our friend Charles Payne on Fox Business, where they discussed the outlook for the US economy, the impact of rate cuts, the significance of the Dollar, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. What Is The Medium Term Outlook On The Economy?
While the slowing economy might seem concerning after a significant market rally, we believe growth is likely to surprise to the upside over the medium term.
Generally speaking, the preponderance of evidence points to an economy that is moderating and a labor market that is cooling but not collapsing.
When observing the leading indicators of the broader business cycle, we believe they do not suggest investors should expect a recession over the medium term, which is positive for asset markets.
2. How Would A 50 Basis Points Cut Affect The Global Economy?
The U.S. Net International Investment Deficit doubled in the five years through 2023, increasing from $10 trillion in Foreign-Owned U.S. Assets to $20 trillion. This means a large amount of unrealized capital gains may flow out of the U.S. if the Fed is not careful managing the pace of the dollar’s decline.
A 50 basis point cut next week would likely send a signal to international capital allocators that something might be wrong with the U.S. economy, causing them to book gains and return home with their capital.
In our view, we would not suggest starting with a 50 basis point cut. However, if data from the labor market and inflation support it, the Fed should accelerate the pace of easing between now and the end of March. Beyond that, their window to continue easing may close for a while due to accelerating inflation.
3. How Will The DXY Impact Asset Markets Over The Next 12 Months?
The dollar is typically the most dominant factor in driving the global economy and global liquidity.
We believe the dollar is poised to decline significantly over the next 12 months, which should provide a positive boost to global growth.
However, investors should remain cautious and continue favoring defensive sectors and factors within the equity and fixed income markets because this could also trigger the unwinding of popular trades, including the Yen carry trade.
By now, you’ve likely realized that piecing together an investment strategy from finance podcasts, YouTube videos, and macro “gurus” on 𝕏 is not delivering the results you know you deserve.
This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.
If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?
Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.
If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.
When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.
Stock Market Predictions To End 2024!
Darius recently joined our friend Anthony Pompliano, where they discussed the 42 Macro Global Macro Risk Matrix, the outlook for the global economy, AI-related productivity growth, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. What Does Our Global Macro Risk Matrix Indicate About The Direction of Asset Markets?
We are currently in an era of peak noise. At 42 Macro, we help our clients cut through the noise, and our Global Macro Risk Matrix is one of the most powerful tools we have built to do that.
Looking at our Global Macro Risk Matrix, we have seen a battle between GOLDILOCKS and DEFLATION since the end of June. Currently, DEFLATION has the highest share of confirming markets, but the strength of that signal is low—only in the 27th percentile of data going back to January 1998.
This suggests that market participants are still uncertain which Market Regime will prevail. We expect this debate is likely to resolve in favor of GOLDILOCKS, but we could see asset markets price in DEFLATION over the short term.
2. How Will The Global Economy Influence Asset Markets Over The Medium Term?
At 42 Macro, we provide historical data and forward projections for the Bottom-Up GRID Regime across major global economies.
According to our models, many economies are in or moving toward a GOLDILOCKS regime through the end of this year.
In our view, this shift could create positive momentum for asset markets in the medium term. Although the U.S. economy’s GRID sequence generally carries more weight than the rest of the global economies, it is promising to see global economies providing tailwinds rather than the headwinds experienced from mid-2021 to the end of 2023.
3. How Will AI Impact Asset Markets Moving Forward?
Productivity growth is positive for asset markets because it allows the economy to grow with disinflationary pressure. When productivity rises, you typically see margin expansion, which supports labor market growth without triggering the inflationary impulses that would cause corporations to cut jobs – a dynamic that persists today.
However, we believe we have not yet seen substantial productivity gains from AI.
As a result, we do not believe AI will be the dominant driver of asset markets in the near term. That said, if AI turns out to be as significant as many expect, it will have an enormous impact on the future of the economy.
That’s a wrap!
By now, you’ve likely realized that piecing together an investment strategy from finance podcasts, YouTube videos, and macro “gurus” on 𝕏 is not delivering the results you know you deserve.
This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.
If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?
Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.
If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.
When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.
Inflation & Recession: Darius Dale’s Macro Deep Dive
Darius recently joined our friend Andreas Steno-Larsen on Real Vision, where they discussed the economy, inflation, the labor market, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. What Is The Overall Outlook On The Economy?
From a fundamental standpoint, we are at a crossroads in the economy, coming off a period of strong, uninterrupted, accelerating growth that began in the second half of 2022.
Although growth is slowing, we expect it to surprise consensus to the upside over the medium term.
On the inflation side, we have accurately called for the current deceleration, and we anticipate inflation will continue to meander lower over the next few months before bottoming out.
However, by the first half of next year, we project inflation is likely to accelerate again. There is no historical precedent for inflation sustainably breaking durably below trend without a recession, so our view diverges from consensus, which currently expects a durable return to 2%.
2. How Will Inflation Behave In The Fourth Turning Regime?
We believe the Fed is yielding to fiscal dominance in this Fourth Turning regime, which is consistent with what the Fed has historically done in such periods. One key dynamic investors should anticipate during a Fourth Turning is the explosive growth of public debts and deficits and how those contribute to above-trend inflation.
As a result, the Fed will likely use its balance sheet and monetary policy toolkit to create excess demand for Treasuries relative to actual market demand for those securities.
Because of this Fourth Turning-style monetary policy, we believe inflation is likely to bottom at a level higher than 2%. As investors, we will likely realize this as we move throughout 2025. However, we do not see any immediate market risks associated with this today.
3. Should Investors Be Worried About The Rising Unemployment Rate?
Our research shows the unemployment rate is rising primarily due to the growth of the labor force, not because more people are losing their jobs.
While we acknowledge that the labor market is softening, we do not see an elevated risk of a recession in the medium term, based on current leading indicators of the business cycle and how they are trending.
That’s a wrap!
By now, you’ve likely realized that piecing together an investment strategy from finance podcasts, YouTube videos, and macro “gurus” on 𝕏 is not delivering the results you know you deserve.
This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.
If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?
Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.
If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.
When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.
Private Investing 101
Darius recently hosted our friend Kris Naidu, Founder and CEO of Zeacon, on our monthly Pro to Pro, where they discussed the dos and don’ts of private investing.
If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. What Determines Success in Private Investing?
Having been involved in private tech investing for over twenty years, Chris believes in investing in what you know.
When investing in private companies, there is less information than in the public sector. The companies are not as well known, and their products are not as defined.
In private investing, success largely depends on anticipating where the market is headed and assessing whether the team can successfully develop the product or service to align with that direction.
2. How Do Investors Identify Where The Market Is Headed?
Spotting trends in the real world is crucial to understanding where the market is heading.
For example, AI is emerging as a transformative force, and examining how it will be used to solve real-world problems is important. In industries like healthcare and finance, AI has the potential to modernize outdated systems and outperform the current technologies.
Successfully predicting these trends comes from identifying where AI will have the most significant impact and investing in companies that can quickly capitalize on these opportunities.
3. How Do Investors Get Involved With Private Investing?
After six or seven years as a startup CEO, Chris began investing through an angel investment event in Seattle, where private investments were being pitched.
That experience provided valuable lessons: Chris learned that by being surrounded by both seasoned investors and newcomers, he was offered insights into what works and what does not.
For those interested in private investing, you should attend events and network with private investors with more experience so you can learn from their past successes and mistakes.
That’s a wrap!
By now, you’ve likely realized that piecing together an investment strategy from finance podcasts, YouTube videos, and macro “gurus” on 𝕏 is not delivering the results you know you deserve.
This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.
If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?
Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.
If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.
When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime without penalty.
2025 Warning: Slowing Growth, Rising Inflation, and Productivity Could Squeeze Markets
Darius recently joined our friend Jeremy Szafron on Kitco News, where they discussed the recent decline in housing starts, the U.S. economy, inflation, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. What Does The Recent Housing Market Data Indicate About The Broader Economy?
Recent housing starts and building permit data, along with last week’s NAHB homebuyer market sentiment report, suggest an accelerated decline in the housing market, with housing starts and building permit data at levels not seen since summer 2020. This is concerning because the housing cycle has historically been a persistent leading indicator of the broader business cycle.
As a result, we anticipate growth will slow in the coming months. However, we do not advise investors to position for a developing recession in the U.S. economy.
Specifically, the latest retail sales and industrial production data, and other persistent leading indicators of the business cycle, currently indicate a recession is unlikely to materialize over a medium-term time horizon (3-12 months). Instead, we are currently observing a meandering off the top of the growth curve, which we believe is likely to persist over the next year or so.
2. How Is The U.S. Economy Transitioning From Its Growth Cycle Upturn?
The U.S. economy has been in a growth cycle upturn since the summer of 2022 when we authored our ‘Resilient U.S. Economy’ theme. We are now observing an economy that is merely getting less resilient.
Current data suggests a softening labor market, potentially at a faster rate than in recent quarters. However, our comprehensive analysis of leading indicators—including jobless claims, temporary employment, cyclical employment, layoffs, discharge rates, productivity, and corporate profit growth—does not indicate an impending severe downturn that would pose significant market risk.
While growth is likely to slow over the medium term, we do not anticipate the U.S. economy will decelerate as rapidly as the consensus currently expects. As a result, we believe the rate cuts presently priced into the 2025 forward rate curve in the U.S. are unlikely to materialize. A reconciliation is likely to occur near the year, but for now, we maintain a relatively optimistic outlook for asset markets – especially through year-end.
3. What Economic Challenges Might Emerge In 2025?
Our research suggests the inflation cycle will hit its low in the coming months before rising throughout 2025. This scenario implies growth potentially slowing to a below-trend pace in early 2025, with inflation bottoming at a level inconsistent with the Fed’s 2% target before reaccelerating.
Concurrently, we might observe a moderation or significant slowdown in productivity growth. The combination of slowing growth, rising inflation, and reduced productivity could lead to a margin squeeze and a significant slowdown in earnings. From a timing perspective, we view the first half of next year as the period with the most market risk.
Investors will likely need to reset their expectations for 2025 earnings lower during this time. However, we do not believe the markets need to debate this excessively at present because, historically, markets typically focus only on the next one to three months.
That’s a wrap!
By now, you’ve likely realized that piecing together an investment strategy from finance podcasts, YouTube videos, and macro “gurus” on 𝕏 is not delivering the results you know you deserve.
This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.
If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?
Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.
If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.
When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime, without penalty.
How To Win In The 2024 Financial Marketplace
Darius hosted our friend Scott Diddel on this month’s Pro to Pro, where they explored Scott’s comprehensive presentation on understanding the basics of how to allocate assets from a tax-advantaged perspective.
If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from Scott’s presentation that can help you plan for your financial future:
1. How Do Inflation And Taxes Impact Long-Term Investments?
The impact of inflation and taxes on long-term investments is staggering.
A $1 investment in large-cap stocks from 1926 would have grown to $2,533 today without the impact of inflation and taxes. When taking into account the impact of taxes alone, the amount is reduced to $672. When both taxes and inflation are considered, the value plummets to $48. This represents a shocking 98% decrease from the nominal return to the actual return in your bank account.
Allowing your money to sit idly exposes it to the erosive effects of taxes and inflation. As an investor, you should actively strategize to implement tax-efficient strategies and preserve your wealth over time.
2. What Are The Tax Implications of Different Investment Vehicles?
Investment vehicles are categorized based on their tax treatment: “Tax Later,” “Tax Now,” and “Tax Once and Never Again.”
Qualified plans like 401(k)s and IRAs fall under “Tax Later,” offering tax-deferred growth until you withdraw the investment. “Tax Now” includes outside investments, such as stocks and bonds, which generate taxable income annually. Lastly, the “Tax Once/Never Again” category features options like Life Insurance Retirement Plans (LIRPs), providing tax-free growth and distributions.
Understanding these distinctions is crucial for optimizing your investment strategy. Each category offers unique advantages, allowing investors to tailor their portfolios to their specific financial goals and tax situations.
3. How Can A Life Insurance Retirement Plan (LIRP) Enhance Retirement Distributions?
A Life Insurance Retirement Plan (LIRP) can significantly boost after-tax retirement income.
In a scenario without a LIRP, a desired $250,000 distribution results in only $170,000 after taxes. By incorporating a LIRP, the same distribution yields $208,000 after taxes. This $38,000 annual difference amounts to an additional $760,000 over a 20-year period.
LIRPs achieve this through tax-free growth and distributions, complementing traditional retirement accounts and outside investments. This powerful tool offers a tax-efficient way to supplement retirement income, helping you earn additional income in your retirement years.
That’s a wrap!
By now, you’ve likely realized that piecing together an investment strategy from finance podcasts, YouTube videos, and macro “gurus” on 𝕏 is not delivering the results you deserve.
This kind of approach only leads to confusion from conflicting advice, frustration from mediocre returns, and exhaustion from the emotional rollercoaster of your portfolio swings.
If you don’t change your process, how can you expect to get better results?
Over 2,000 investors around the world confidently make smarter investment decisions using our clear, actionable, and accurate signals—and as a result, they make more money.
If you are ready to join them, we are here to support you.
When you sign up, you’ll get immediate access to our premium research and signals—and if we’re not the right fit, you can cancel anytime.
Markets Turning From ‘Goldilocks’ Towards Deflation
Darius joined our friend Adam Taggart this week to discuss the risk of recession, inflation, the risk of a US fiscal crisis, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. How High Is The Risk of Recession In The Next 3 to 12 Months?
While we agree with the consensus that the economy is late cycle, with a low unemployment rate of 4.3% and an inverted yield curve since October 2022, we do not currently see a high risk of recession in the next 3 to 12 months.
Our assessment is based on our econometric study of all the postwar economic cycles in and around recession. That process consisted of normalizing the policy, profits, liquidity, growth, stocks, employment, credit, and inflation cycles, and comparing current trends to historical patterns leading into and through a recession. Despite observing significantly tight policy, we have not experienced the typical breakdown in the corporate profit cycle, liquidity cycle, growth cycle, or stock market cycle that usually occurs a few quarters ahead of a recession.
The current constellation of these leading indicators suggests limited recession risk in the medium term. However, we will continue monitoring and flagging critical inflections in these indicators for our clients, as the US economy remains in a late-cycle condition.
2. What Is Driving The Risk of A US Fiscal Crisis?
We believe the risk of a US fiscal crisis is much closer than most investors realize.
Our assessment stems from a significant shift in the labor versus capital dynamic around 2000 – Employee Compensation as a share of Domestic Corporate Businesses Value Added dropped below trend and has remained there, primarily influenced by factors like China’s entry into the WTO, globalization, and domestic deregulation. This shift has concentrated corporate profits among the elite, creating an inequitable situation and fueling the rise of populism on both sides of the political spectrum.
Many do not realize that both political parties are contributing to a high probability of a fiscal crisis by the end of this decade. Democrats are implementing policies that inflate the incomes of the lower half of the income distribution, while Republicans are doing the same for the upper half. These forms of socialism require piling on debt, which in turn is pushing us toward a potential fiscal crisis.
3. What Is The Outlook For Inflation?
Per the same deep-dive empirical study highlighted above, we have found that inflation is the most lagging indicator of the business cycle.
Heading into a downturn, policy generally tightens first, followed by a breakdown in corporate profits and liquidity. Growth and stocks break down about one to two quarters later, followed by employment and credit. Inflation usually breaks down below trend 12 to 15 months after a recession starts.
As a result, we believe it is very unlikely that inflation returns durably to trend without a recession in the US economy. We do not, however, believe price stability is the Fed’s priority in a Fourth Turning regime. Maintaining order in global sovereign debt markets amid structurally elevated public debts and deficits is far more important.
That’s a wrap! If you found this blog post helpful, explore our research for exclusive, hedge-fund-caliber investment insights you can act on today.
How Did Japan Break Bitcoin and Stocks?
Darius joined our friend Anthony Pompliano this week to discuss the JPY carry trade, the 42 Macro Weather Model, the 42 Macro GRID Model, and more.
If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio:
1. What Caused The JPY Carry Trade?
The unwind of the JPY carry trade is gaining attention because many global financial institutions have used the low-yield Japanese yen to fund their leveraged positions.
Japanese yields have been significantly lower than those of other major central banks, making it cost-effective to borrow in yen and convert to USD, Euros, or other currencies for investments.
We are starting to see the beginning of that unwind now.
2. What Does Our Macro Weather Model Indicate About The Outlook For Asset Markets?
The 42 Macro Weather Model, which provides a short to medium-term outlook across the five major asset classes, is currently signaling a neutral outlook for the stock market and Bitcoin, suggesting baseline returns and volatility over the next three months.
Various fundamental factors, including an uptrend in global liquidity, projected rate cuts, and a projected decline in the unemployment rate, support this outlook.
However, we remain optimistic about the overall performance of these asset classes, as we don’t anticipate significant economic risks in the US that would force the Fed to cut rates more aggressively, which could otherwise hasten the unwinding of the yen carry trade.
3. What Does The 42 Macro GRID Model Indicate About The Outlook For Global Economies?
Our 42 Macro GRID Model indicates that the US economy is likely to enter a DEFLATION Bottom-Up Macro Regime in the third quarter, with both growth and inflation slowing. Despite this, we are not worried about asset markets. Our GDP growth estimates are significantly higher than consensus, and our deep dive into business cycle analysis suggests there is a limited risk of a recession in the US economy over the medium term.
Moreover, we believe inflation will likely bottom out in Q4 before rising in 2025. That could pose a future market risk, but isn’t an immediate concern at this time.
Global economies are largely diverging from the US, with most of the world likely to remain in a GOLDILOCKS Bottom-Up Macro Regime throughout 2H24, and the growth accelerating + inflation deceleration dynamic is a typically supportive backdrop for asset markets.
That’s a wrap!
If you found this blog post helpful, explore our research for exclusive, hedge-fund-caliber investment insights you can act on today.